CONVECT> find swody1 CONVECT> mkc 12.10-03.11 ACUS1 KMKC 101624 SWODY1 MKC AC 101624 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 101630Z - 111200Z REF WW NUMBER 0242...VALID TIL 2100Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CRP 45 WNW HDO 15 W SJT 65 WNW ABI 25 W GAG 45 SW RSL 50 SSW HSI 50 W YKN 30 ESE ABR 70 N ATY 35 ESE FAR 25 SW BRD 25 N MCW 20 NW OTM 20 WSW P35 15 SSW FLV 25 WNW CNU 50 SW TUL 20 S ADM 15 SE DAL 20 NW LFK 40 NE MSY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FMY 35 WSW AGR 15 ENE AGR 20 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ELO 15 SE VOK 35 NNE DYR 35 SSE UOX 25 E LUL 40 S MOB ...CONT... 20 SSE DRT 45 N DRT 20 SW BGS 45 E AMA 35 W GCK 20 NNE COS 45 NNE GJT 10 W EVW 35 ESE 27U 30 SE GTF 75 NNE BIL 30 E 4BQ Y22 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE AQQ 35 N CEW 35 SE BHM 25 ENE RMG 45 SE AHN 10 SSE CHS. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... COLD LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKYS WITH STG MID LEVEL WIND MAX CURRENTLY NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ROTATING TO E OF UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE COLD FRONT ATTM CENTRAL SD/NEB SWWD INTO SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN/IA SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT. DRY LINE WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON WRN OK/TX BORDER SSWWD TO BIG BEND. ACTIVE SQUALL LINE LA THIS AM EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES IN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SQUALL LINE EXTENDING WWD JUST OFF SERN TX COAST TO S TX RETREATS NWD INTO CENTRAL TX WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONTINUE STG SLY LOW LEVEL JET IN S TX. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DISRUPTED UNSTABLE SLY GULF FLOW INTO PLAINS...HOWEVER STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN MDT TO STG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON E OF DRY LINE AT LEAST AS FAR N AS ERN NEB. MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN TX WHERE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT DRT AND CRP INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH CAPES TO NEAR 4000 J/KG. ...TX... WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE S TX AIRMASS SPREADING BACK ACROSS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A WEAKENING CAP...THE CURRENT MARGINALLY SVR STMS CENTRAL TX LIKELY TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP E/SE TO SERN TX. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO BY LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP E OF DRY LINE WRN TX AND THEN PROPAGATE E/SE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN TX TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...OK/KS/NEB... DRY LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY REDEVELOP. MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...BUT PRIMARY THREAT WITH HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ...ERN SD/SWRN MN/WRN IA... AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AREA WILL BE LESS AND DURING AFTERNOON NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT LINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WIND MAX AND UPPER SYSTEM ROTATE INTO PLAINS OVERNIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE COULD CONTINUE. THIS AREA THREAT APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY LARGE HAIL WITH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SUFFICIENTLY. ...S FL... HAVE MAINTAINED THREAT OF PULSE SEVERE S HALF OF FL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER COOL MID LEVELS AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. ..HALES.. 05/10/99 ACUS1 KMKC 102005 SWODY1 MKC AC 102005 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 102000Z - 111200Z REF WW NUMBER 0242...VALID TIL 2100Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRP 25 ESE COT 65 W COT ...CONT... 45 WNW DRT 50 SW SJT 45 ENE BGS 35 NNW CDS 20 E DDC 20 S HSI 45 W YKN 25 W ABR 15 ESE FAR 15 E BRD OTM 15 NNE MKC 30 N BVO 55 SW TUL 20 W DUA 25 S DAL 10 SW ACT 40 WSW TPL 10 N AUS 25 SW CLL 35 E CLL 40 SW LFK 45 NW BPT 25 SE BPT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N PIE 40 SW ORL 15 ENE AGR 20 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE IWD 15 SE VOK 35 NNE DYR 35 SSE UOX 15 SW MEI 25 S MOB ...CONT... 50 NW DRT 40 WSW SJT 75 ESE LBB 55 N CDS 35 W GCK 40 SW PUB 35 WNW ALS 30 SW GJT 30 SW EVW 25 W PIH 50 NE SUN 25 SE HLN 15 NW BIL SHR 25 NW CPR 45 SE 4DG 35 E SNY 30 SSE LBF 25 S BBW 45 ENE ANW 40 NE PIR 35 W Y26 10 WNW Y22 30 SSE DIK 30 ENE DIK 20 S P24 MOT 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE AQQ 15 WNW TOI 25 WSW ANB 40 E ANB 15 ESE MCN 10 SSE CHS. ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER WIND MAXIMUM WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST/REDEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA BY 11/12Z. BY THAT TIME...ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM/SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION... ...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES... A NARROW AXIS OF 60+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM WESTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN HAMPERED BY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION...LATEST SBCAPE HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM REFORMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THIS EVENING...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO LOW LEVEL VEERING IS ALREADY IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR SURFACE LOW AND ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING MEAN FLOW DURING THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED WITH LATEST SBCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. COMBINATION OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG EXISTING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTERSECTIONS WITH DRYLINE FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR DEL RIO WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL FLOW IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH OF ACTIVITY BEING MULTI-CELL. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY MID LEVEL AIR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY BOWING STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP. 12Z ETA SUGGESTS THAT A MCS WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREA LATE TONIGHT. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE TAMPA AREA DOWN TO THE EVERGLADES. ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KNOTS IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...INCREASING THE THREAT OF MULTI-CELL ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. LATEST SBCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE (DCAPE) OF 1200 J/KG SUGGESTS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..CRAVEN.. 05/10/99 ACUS1 KMKC 110111 SWODY1 MKC AC 110111 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW FAR 45 ESE FAR 20 WNW BRD 35 ENE STC 30 NW ALO 10 NNW OTM 20 NNE BVO 20 WNW OKC 10 ENE CSM 20 S GAG 35 WNW P28 35 NW OFK 10 W HON 15 WSW ABR 40 SW FAR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BRO 65 SSE LRD ...CONT... 60 SE DRT 30 NNE SAT 10 WSW CLL 45 NW BPT 20 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E ELO 25 E MLI 65 N P02 35 WSW ARG 25 NE HOT 20 ENE ADM 30 SW LTS 45 NW CDS 20 ESE DHT 35 NW CAO 25 SSE PUB 30 W LIC AKO 30 NNE IML 20 NW BBW 35 S 9V9 20 N Y26 55 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 35 WSW AUS 30 SSW GGG 30 WSW MLU 35 W JAN 20 WSW MEI 25 WSW SEM 20 WSW AUO 30 E LGC 20 WNW AGS 15 SW CHS. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH ERN NB AND CNTRL KS. ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL KS THROUGH ERN NB INTO WRN IA WITH SBCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. EVENING SOUNDING AND PROFILER DATA SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOW JET STREAK CIRRUS RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOW JET STREAK CIRRUS DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER SPEED MAX MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STORM ORGANIZATION INTO THE EVENING. MOREOVER...STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ALONG 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EWD INTO IA AND MN LATER TONIGHT AND COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS NWRN OK. ...SRN TX... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHERE 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...LARGE SUPERCELL MOVING SEWD INTO DUVAL COUNTY APPARENTLY IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF AUGMENTED SHEAR/LARGE CAPE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO. ..DIAL.. 05/11/99 CONVECT>