CONVECT> find swomcd CONVECT> mkc 18.10-01.11 ACUS3 KMKC 101841 SWOMCD MKC MCD 101841 TXZ000-102100- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0392 FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL... RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS EASTERN MASON...LLANO... BURNET ...GILLESPIE...BLANCO...NORTHERN TRAVIS COUNTIES. 18Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOUSTON WESTWARD TO NEAR NEW BRAUNFELS THEN EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO MASON COUNTY WHERE IT INTERSECTED A SURFACE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING NEAR THIS INTERSECTION WITH CELLS TRAINING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VWPS FROM SAN ANTONIO/CORPUS CHRISTI SHOWS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-25 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN TX. THIS FLOW IS IMPINGING ON THE EAST- WEST ORIENTED PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAXIMIZING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL TX. THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL TX REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WIND FIELD...TRAINING OF THE ECHOES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST...HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...BUT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN TO THE WEST. ..RACY/JOHNS.. 05/10/99 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ACUS3 KMKC 101844 SWOMCD MKC MCD 101844 TXZ000-102100- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0392 FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL... RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINS WILL FALL ACROSS EASTERN MASON...LLANO... BURNET ...GILLESPIE...BLANCO...NORTHERN TRAVIS COUNTIES. 18Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOUSTON WESTWARD TO NEAR NEW BRAUNFELS THEN EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO MASON COUNTY WHERE IT INTERSECTED A SURFACE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING NEAR THIS INTERSECTION WITH CELLS TRAINING EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VWPS FROM SAN ANTONIO/CORPUS CHRISTI SHOWS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-25 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN TX. THIS FLOW IS IMPINGING ON THE EAST- WEST ORIENTED PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAXIMIZING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL TX. THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL TX REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WIND FIELD...TRAINING OF THE ECHOES IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST...HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...BUT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN TO THE WEST. ..RACY/JOHNS.. 05/10/99 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ACUS3 KMKC 101853 SWOMCD MKC MCD 101853 TXZ000-102100- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0393 for central tx CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... low level moisture is returning nwd on back side of outflow boundary from drt/jct area nwd through abi. dry line has bulged ewd to a line from w of cds to just e of sjt to w of drt...allowing dry and warm air mass to impinge on this developing moist axis. sbcape values have reached 3000-4000 j/kg along moist axis. convective inhibition has become weak along moist axis...so low level convergence should be sufficient for strong thunderstorm DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG MUCH OF AXIS...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A RISK OF BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT AND DOWNBURST WINDS IN SRN PORTION OF AREA WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGEST. WW ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..JOHNS.. 05/10/99 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ACUS3 KMKC 102256 SWOMCD MKC MCD 102256 TXZ000-110100- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0394 FOR SOUTH TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FRIO AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE 3000 J/KG. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE NEW BRAUNFELS RADAR SHOWS VERY STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS TYPE OF SHEAR PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING TORNADOES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WEATHER WATCH. ..REHBEIN.. 05/10/99 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ACUS3 KMKC 102328 SWOMCD MKC MCD 102328 KSZ000-NEZ000-110200- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0395 FOR CENTRAL KANSAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. A DRYLINE WAS SITUATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE REMAINS WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE... PARTICULARLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE OVER THIS AREA. CONVERGENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK ALONG FRONT/DRYLINE ...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK A VERY WEAK CAP. ADDITIONALLY...AN APPROACHING JET MAX MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WILL AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN A LINE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODERATELY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WEATHER WATCH. ..REHBEIN.. 05/10/99 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ACUS3 KMKC 110100 SWOMCD MKC MCD 110100 KSZ000-NEZ000-110500- SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0396 FOR CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL... BACKBUILDING/TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KS/SERN NEB THIS EVENING. COUNTIES TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 11/05Z ARE 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM ERN KIOWA COUNTY KS TO ERN ARE 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM ERN KIOWA COUNTY KS TO ERN PLATTE COUNTY NEB. LATEST REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A NEARLY STATIONARY LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NRN POLK COUNTY NEB TO SWRN STAFFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL KS. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20-25 KTS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S RESULTING IN SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN TO TOP INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH. A THETA-E RIDGE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE 21Z RUC2 TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL KS THROUGH 06Z PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR INCREASED RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WIND SHEAR VECTORS FROM THE 21Z RUC2 FORECAST A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST PROPAGATION OF THE LINE OF STORMS AT 5-10 KTS INDICATING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL SLY JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE SRN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...RESULTING IN FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ..MCBEATH-PETERS.. 05/11/99 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... CONVECT>